Reading the trenches…

Is it worth it? →

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Activity and odds · daily

Is it worth trading?

Bars show how many coins graduated each day. The line is the chance a simple trade made money: buy 5 minutes after graduation, sell at +50%, cut at −20%. Above the dashed line, that trade pays after fees.

Coins graduatingChance the trade makes moneyBreak-evenProfit zone
Signals

What's driving it.

Four signals, each a three-day average, ranked against the last 30 days.

Milestones · last 30 days

How far coins go.

Of the coins that reached a row's market cap, the share that reached each column's within 72 hours of graduating. Reached means a 15-minute candle closed there.

Survival · after graduation

How long they live.

Share of graduates still alive, by hours since graduation, split by how much supply was bundled at launch.

Method

How it's made.

What goes into the score?

Four signals, each a three-day average ranked against the last 30 days, blended into one 0 to 100 score.

  • GraduationsHow many coins graduate per day.
  • Hold rateHow often graduates hold a $250k market cap for at least 10 minutes within a day.
  • SurvivalHow many are still trading a day later.
  • Flip testWhether a quick +50% / -20% flip bought 5 minutes after graduation beats break-even.

Early on it is ranked against only the few days collected so far, so treat it as rough until a full month builds up.

Where does the data come from?
  • GraduationsRead from Solana via Helius, straight from pump.fun's migration transactions. Every graduation is counted.
  • PricesCoinGecko's on-chain candles for each coin's PumpSwap pool. The graduation price comes from the migration transaction itself.

How terms are defined

  • Cap reachedCandles must close at or above the market cap for 10 minutes, so launch wicks from bot buys don't count.
  • DeadThe coin stops trading at 25% or more of its graduation price.
  • BundlingThe share of supply bought in the same block the coin was created.
Why aren't today's coins included?

A coin only counts once it has had time to play out: 24 hours for the score, 72 hours for milestones. Counting younger coins would drop the slow movers and skew everything.

How often does it update?

The collector runs every five minutes, and this page refreshes whenever newly priced coins change the numbers, at most every half hour. The score itself moves once a day, when another full day of coins has played out.

Is this financial advice?

No. It shows how similar coins behaved. Any single coin can do anything, and the odds shift from week to week.

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